Holiday Season Trends 2026: How Much Will Consumers Spend?

Holiday shopping trends of 2026 point to a clear pattern: online growth is outpacing overall retail. According to Deloitte, eCommerce holiday sales are projected to grow 7.5%–8.4% year over year, compared with 4.0%–4.8% growth for retail overall. Digital is where the season will be won or lost.

Spending itself is holding up better than consumer confidence would suggest, but shoppers are budgeting with real discipline this year, according to PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026. They aren’t pulling back so much as shopping earlier, comparing more, and moving online to do it.

This shift changes what retail strategy needs to emphasize this quarter. A shopper researching gifts in September behaves differently than one racing through a Black Friday sale. A shopper using AI to compare prices expects a different kind of accuracy than one browsing a search results page.

Here are the seven holiday shopping trends this year that matter most, how AI is changing the way people shop, and what retailers should do about it.

The 7 Biggest Holiday Shopping Trends of 2026

1. Consumers plan to spend cautiously, not cut back

According to PwC, gift spending is down just 2% year over year, with the average consumer planning to spend $708 on gifts this season. This points to careful budgeting rather than a retreat in holiday spending.

The same report finds that 80% of consumers plan to follow a budgeting strategy this season. Meanwhile, 79% say deals and discounts influence when they buy, not whether they buy at all.

For retail leaders, this is the key distinction: discount depth alone won’t move a budget-conscious shopper as much as the timing and sequencing of an offer. A well-placed early-access promotion can outperform a deeper discount announced too late in the cycle.

2. Holiday shopping now starts before Halloween

When does holiday shopping start in 2026? Earlier than ever. Salsify’s research found that 41% of shoppers had already started buying gifts by early September, and 58% fall inside the September–December peak shopping window.

PwC brings another layer to this: nearly 40% of all planned gift spending is still concentrated in the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. This means the season now has two distinct peaks rather than one.

A retailer running a single Black Friday-only campaign risks missing the meaningful share of demand that shows months earlier. This is when shoppers are researching, comparing, and shortlisting long before any doorbuster deal goes live.

3. Millennials and Gen Z are pulling back more than other generations

PwC finds that Millennials are cutting gift spend by 10% and travel spend by 37% year over year, largely under pressure from mortgages and childcare costs.

Gen Z is down 9% on gifts and 29% on travel. Baby boomers, by contrast, are moving in the opposite direction, with spend trending upward as major life expenses recede. This is not a uniform market pulling back together; it’s several markets moving at different speeds.

Retail leaders segmenting holiday campaigns by generation, rather than relying on one blanket message, are more likely to capture the more resilient boomer segment. This still allows them to meet price-sensitive Millennials and Gen Z shoppers where they actually are.

4. AI use is rising as a shopping research tool

PwC found that 29% of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping this year, up from 22% last year. Most plan to use it for research and price comparison rather than for completing a purchase outright.

That distinction matters for retail leaders: product visibility now goes beyond the traditional search results page and into whatever AI assistant a shopper opens next. This is the shift our AI readiness capability is built for at Intelligence Node, helping retailers prepare their product and pricing data to stay visible as shopping moves onto AI-driven channels.

A product that ranks well in search but is poorly represented in AI-generated answers is effectively half-visible to a growing share of holiday shoppers.

5. Nostalgic, screen-free gifts are back in demand

PwC reports that 64% of consumers are focusing on screen-free, nostalgic gifts this year, and that figure climbs to 78% among Gen Z specifically.

Categories like books, board games, puzzles, and analog hobby kits are re-entering assortments that had moved heavily toward tech and connected devices in recent years.

For retail leaders, this is a signal worth testing in merchandising and content: featured collections built around screen-free gifting may resonate more than another round of gadget-led holiday messaging. This may be particularly relevant for younger shoppers.

6. Parents are applying more scrutiny to kids’ tech gifts

Every one of the top five gift categories for kids this year is non-tech, and tech devices and tech-enabled entertainment rank below gift cards and consumables. Gift cards holding a top-four spot also points to hedging behavior.

When parents are unsure what a child wants, they default to flexibility rather than guessing on a specific toy or device. Analog categories dominating, tech trailing, and gift cards performing well suggest parents are treating kids’ gifts as a lower-risk purchase this year, prioritizing options that are easy to get right.

It’s paired with real caution around the tech gifts parents do buy. According to PwC, 33% of parents purchasing tech gifts for kids say they’re influenced by parental controls, and 31% say they care whether the product collects a child’s data.

For retail leaders, this is a two-part signal: lead kids’ assortments with analog, screen-free options rather than tech-first bundles. For any tech product still in the mix, surface parental-control and data-handling details clearly on the product page rather than in the specs.

7. Travel budgets are taking the biggest hit

PwC finds that only 40% of consumers plan to travel this winter, down from 44% last year, with expected travel spend down 24% to $419.

Discretionary categories like travel are absorbing the pullback that gift spending has largely avoided; a sign that consumers are protecting holiday traditions first and cutting elsewhere.

Retail leaders in travel, hospitality, and experience categories should expect softer overall demand this season. They may need to lean harder into value bundling, adaptable cancellation terms, or loyalty incentives to compete for a shrinking pool of discretionary dollars.

How AI Is Reshaping Holiday Shopping Behavior

AI product search behavior is still forming, not fixed. Similarweb’s research frames it well: AI and search are additive, not substitutive. Consumers are stacking tools, not switching to a single one. A shopper might ask an AI assistant for gift ideas, then still open a search engine, a retailer’s site, and a price comparison tool before buying.

That behavior is determined by skill, not just intent. PwC finds that among AI users, only 48% show proficient or advanced prompting ability. The rest are typing prompts closer to a basic search query than a tailored ask. What percentage of shoppers use AI for holiday shopping matters less than how well they use it, and right now, most are still learning.

For retailers, the takeaway is direct: products need to be discoverable and accurately represented in AI-generated shopping answers, not just in traditional search results.

A shopper’s imprecise prompt should still be able to surface the right product, at the right price, with the right availability. If it can’t, the sale goes to a competitor whose catalog is better prepared for imprecise, AI-mediated search.

5 Things Retailers Must Do Now to Prepare for Holiday Shopping

1. Show up early online

Product content, seasonal categories, and promotional calendars should be live well before October. A meaningful share of shoppers are already comparing options months ahead of Black Friday, and a late launch means starting the season already behind.

2. Use AI pricing engines to adjust prices in real-time

Use AI-driven price intelligence to modify and personalize prices based on market patterns, competitor price movements, and shopper preferences, rather than relying on fixed seasonal markdowns.

3. Lead with value, not just discounts

Deals influence when consumers shop more than whether they buy. Position promotions as smart-timing cues, not last-resort discounting.

4. Prioritize AI and search discoverability

Optimize product pages with the right attributes, descriptions, and categorization so listings are faithfully represented everywhere AI tools and search engines surface them. Intelligence Node’s content optimization solution helps retailers audit and fix these gaps at scale.

5. Keep online pricing and inventory accurate

The peak buying window around Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday is short, and a pricing error or stockout during that stretch costs both revenue and shopper trust. Intelligence Node’s Market Intelligence layer monitors competitor pricing and availability in near real-time, with 99% product matching accuracy, so retailers can catch and fix errors before they cost sales.

Conclusion

Holiday season trends 2026 point to a shopper who is careful, digital-first, and shopping earlier than in past years. Spending is resilient, but it’s concentrated in a shorter, more competitive window before Black Friday even arrives. AI has entered the shopping journey as a research layer, not yet a checkout habit, which gives retailers a window to get discoverability right before that changes.

Retailers who win this season will be the ones meeting shoppers where they already are online, earlier in the season, and increasingly through AI-assisted discovery. The decisions retailers make now on retail pricing strategy for the holiday season – data readiness, pricing accuracy, and AI discoverability will determine who captures that demand. They will also determine who loses it to a faster-moving competitor. Not sure where to start? Schedule a custom demo to see how Intelligence Node’s real-time price monitoring and decision intelligence turn holiday shopping signals into well-informed decisions your team can act on immediately.