Intelligencenode Blog Proven Right: How...

Proven Right: How Our Trend Forecasting Model Went From Probability to Actuality

retail probability product prediction

Intelligence Node’s Probability of Future Success model is an effective ‘Limited Memory’ model that forecasts trends and attributes with a high probability of performing well in the future based on the historical performance of key metrics. Trend forecasting becomes an essential tool to source the right products from manufacturers and avoid overstocking or understocking inventory even more so in a difficult supply chain environment.

In November 2021, many fashion brands faced significant supply chain issues impacting their inventory. 

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SourceRetail Dive

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SourceRetail Gazette

In November ‘21, our model went public with bold recommendations (not very popular at that point). Our model forecasted with high conviction, a decline in the demand for the jogger jeans category. 

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In November 2021, the model signaled that there is a high probability that the demand for jogger jeans will decline as the market started indicating that the trend was reversing (slippage in visibility, price downtick, etc.)

This was a sharp shift in a high demand trend onset during the pandemic months. The recommendation was ignored by key apparel brands at that time. The brand continued to stock up on jogger jeans and are now plagued with excess inventory, which will likely pressure the brands into offering heavy discounting, in turn affecting their profitability.

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Source: The Wall Street Journal

About the solution: The Probability of Future Success model answers the following principal questions surrounding key business areas based on reliable real-time, historical data, and in-depth data analysis:

  • What new trends/styles should I onboard?
  • How should I calibrate established trends to maximize my chances of success?
  • Are the established trends/styles increasing in power?
  • Are the established trends/style decreasing in power?

To learn more about Intelligence Node’s Trend Forecasting model and how it can help merchandisers identify demand trends and market movements in advance, read the full article here: Is Your Product Primed for Future Success? Know with Intelligence Node’s Probability Model.

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